01408    a2200253   4500003000800000005001700008007000300025008004100028020001800069020001500087040001700102041000800119050002300127100002600150245008300176260003800259300004400297505043800341520025500779650001801034650001701052650005301069650003201122BJBSDDR20260325105556.0ta040620s2013    enk           000 0 eng d  a9780141975658  a0141975652  bengcBJBSDDR  aeng14aCB 158bS587s 20131 aSilver, Nate, d1978-14aThe signal and the noise : bthe art and science of prediction /cNate Silver.  aLondon : bPenguin books, c2013.  a534 pages :billustrations. ; c21 cm. 0 aA Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.  aSilver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction. 4aPronósticos 4aPredicciones 4aTeoría bayesiana de decisiones estadísticas  0aConocimiento, Teoría del