TY  - GEN
AU  - Silver,Nate
TI  - The signal and the noise : : the art and science of prediction 
SN  - 9780141975658
AV  - CB 158 S587s 2013
PY  - 2013///
CY  - London : 
PB  - Penguin books, 
KW  - Pronósticos
KW  - Predicciones
KW  - Teoría bayesiana de decisiones estadísticas
KW  - Conocimiento, Teoría del
N1  - A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you
N2  - Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction
ER  -