02221cam a2200397 i 450000100090000000300080000900500170001700600190003400700030005300800410005601000170009701500190011401600180013302000270015102000300017803500240020804001090023204100080034104200140034905000240036308200140038710000250040124501060042626400570053230000450058933600260063433700280066033800270068850400510071550505410076652003890130765000260169665000280172270000260175070000470177620857672BJBSDDR20230411090834.0a|||||r|||| 00| 0 ta190219s2019    ctua     b    001 0 eng d  a  2019934600  aGBB9924882bnb7 a0194107322Uk  a0300244665 (paperback)  a9780300244663 (paperback)  a(OCoLC)on1055260945  aYDXbengcYDXerdadBDXdOCLCQdFM0dOCLCOdCHVBKdYUSdSINLBdUKMGBdOCLCFdOCLCOdHRMdUKOBUdVP@dDLC  aeng  alccopycat14aHB 3730bC353f 201900a330.01/121 aCastle, Jennifer L. 10aForecasting :ban essential introduction /cJennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry. 1aNew Haven ;aLondon :bYale University Press,c2019.  axiv, 213 pages :billustrations ;c22 cm  atextbtxt2rdacontent  aunmediatedbn2rdamedia  avolumebnc2rdacarrier  aIncludes bibliographical references and index.0 aWhy do we need forecasts? -- How do we make forecasts? -- Where are we before we forecast? -- How do we judge forecasts? -- How uncertain are our forecasts? -- Are some real world events unpredictable? -- Why do systematic forecast failures occur? -- Can we avoid systematic forecast failures? -- How do we automatically detect breaks? -- Can we forecast breaks before they hit? -- Can we improve forecasts during breaks? -- Would more information be useful? -- Can econometrics improve forecasting? -- Can you trust economic forecasts?  aMaking accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. This introduction provides an accessible overview of the processes and difficulties of forecasting. For students, for practitioners new to the field, and for general readers interested in how economists forecast. 0aEconomic forecasting. 4aPrevisión económica1 aClements, Michael P. 1 aHendry, David F. q(David Forbes), d1944-