an essential introduction Castle, Jennifer L. creator Clements, Michael P. Hendry, David F. (David Forbes) 1944- text bibliography ctu 2019 monographic eng

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xiv, 213 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. This introduction provides an accessible overview of the processes and difficulties of forecasting. For students, for practitioners new to the field, and for general readers interested in how economists forecast. Why do we need forecasts? -- How do we make forecasts? -- Where are we before we forecast? -- How do we judge forecasts? -- How uncertain are our forecasts? -- Are some real world events unpredictable? -- Why do systematic forecast failures occur? -- Can we avoid systematic forecast failures? -- How do we automatically detect breaks? -- Can we forecast breaks before they hit? -- Can we improve forecasts during breaks? -- Would more information be useful? -- Can econometrics improve forecasting? -- Can you trust economic forecasts? Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry. Includes bibliographical references and index. Economic forecasting Previsión económica HB 3730 C353f 2019 330.01/12 0300244665 (paperback) 9780300244663 (paperback) 2019934600 YDX 190219 20230411090834.0 20857672 eng