06436cam a2200781 a 45000010006000000050017000060080041000230100017000640350023000810400068001040150015001720190013001870200033002000200036002330290018002690290021002870290018003080290017003260290022003430290021003650290020003860350037004060430012004430500022004550820018004770840015004951000032005102450086005422600031006283000034006594900027006935040064007205050497007845200942012815200888022235200960031115200329040715300024044006500036044246500041044606510051045016510046045526500021045986500026046196530025046456500031046706500032047016500020047336500042047536500047047956500027048426500032048696510057049016510052049587000021050108300028050318560096050598560088051558560074052439380045053179380039053629380071054019420012054729460012054849940014054969990017055109520127055278535620230410105427.0930727s1994    nyua     a    001 0 eng    a   93027196   a(OCoLC)ocm28674799  aDLCcDLCdUKMdUBAdMNMdNLGGCdBAKERdBTCTAdLVBdYDXCPdREDDC  aGB94-32936  a30511021  a0471845442 (acid-free paper)  a9780471845447 (acid-free paper)1 aUKMbb94329361 aNLGGCb11015312X1 aYDXCPb4246641 aNZ1b44677231 aAU@b0000103733481 aUNITYb01453939X1 aLGLb0471845442  a(OCoLC)28674799z(OCoLC)30511021  an-us---14aHB3743b.N53 199400a338.5/442220  a83.332bcl1 aNiemira, Michael P.,d1955-10aForecasting financial and economic cycles /cMichael P. Niemira, Philip A. Klein.  aNew York :bWiley,cc1994.  axvi, 526 p. :bill. ;c24 cm.1 aWiley finance editions  aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 483-513) and index.0 aCycle types and theory: The nature of economic cycles -- Business cycle theory -- Measurement methods: Measurement, monitoring, and forecasting cycles -- Economic history: U.S. -- Business cycle history -- Application of cycle techniques: Industry cycles -- Regional business cycles -- International business cycles -- The inflation cycle -- Financial cycles -- Stock market cycles -- Conclusion: The future of the business cycle--alive and well but different -- Appendices -- Notes -- Index.  aOur understanding of the nature of economic cycles and their financial impact has deepened considerably since World War II and our ability to forecast key economic turning points has been greatly enhanced through the creation and application of more sophisticated methodologies. Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles reflects this steady progress, chronicling the development of cyclical theory and the tools used to assess, track, and predict this volatility. More than a history of emerging and competing ideas, however, this vital handbook gives investors, traders, business executives, bankers, policymakers, and economists the fundamental information they need to determine the nature and causes of business cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other instability and presents the full range of applied techniques to enable them to more accurately measure, monitor, and forecast these dramatic fluctuations.8 aForecasting Financial and Economic Cycles describes the classical business cycle as delineated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as well as the alternative concepts developed by many of the century's most influential thinkers. The book shows the basic similarities and differences between the business and growth cycle, and explains five types of economic cycles - the agricultural, inventory, fixed-investment, building, and Kondratieff cycles - including their essential features and critical reception among economists. The book goes on to examine the variety of theories that have evolved to explain the causes of instability in market-driven economies. Here, coverage ranges from discussion of simple unicausal theories, through the powerful impact of more complex Keynesian concepts, to new classical macroeconomics, which takes its cue from earlier economic theory.8 aWith this greater understanding of the forces acting on the economy, readers are prepared for the book's comprehensive treatment of statistical techniques used to measure various trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, including the steps involved in applying a given method as well as its advantages and limitations. Readers learn how to put together their own composite indicators, which can help them evaluate the complex interactions that drive instability and more accurately forecast turning points in a business cycle. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles includes a thorough review of America's economic history over the past century. This detailed look at cycles of different origins and duration highlights important lessons and underscores the need for readers to have a strong knowledge of economic history - in addition to a firm grasp of forecasting techniques - if they are to become adept at pinpointing stages of economic instability.8 aNo forecasting system is infallible. But, armed with the theoretical, historical, and applied information provided in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, practitioners in all areas of business and finance can develop the skills and savvy to more consistently anticipate key fluctuations and profit from the knowledge.  aAlso issued online. 0aBusiness cycleszUnited States. 0aEconomic forecastingzUnited States. 0aUnited StatesxEconomic conditionsy1918-1945. 0aUnited StatesxEconomic conditionsy1945- 0aBusiness cycles. 0aEconomic forecasting.0 aEconomic forecasting 7aCiclos economicos2larpcal17aConjunctuurbewegingen.2gtt17aPrognoses.2gtt 6aCycles âeconomiqueszâEtats-Unis. 6aPrâevision âeconomiquezâEtats-Unis. 6aCycles âeconomiques. 6aPrâevision âeconomique. 6aâEtats-UnisxConditions âeconomiquesy1918-1945. 6aâEtats-UnisxConditions âeconomiquesy1945-1 aKlein, Philip A. 0aWiley finance editions.423Contributor biographical informationuhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/bios/wiley042/93027196.html423Publisher descriptionuhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley033/93027196.html4 3Table of Contentsuhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/onix04/93027196.html  aBaker and TaylorbBTCPn93027196c$55.00  aYBP Library ServicesbYANKn424664  aBaker & TaylorbBKTYc70.00d63.00i0471845442n0002337810sactive  2lcccbk  arpeña  aC0bDRFGD  c36485d36485  00102lcc40708CSaBJBbBJBcCSd2023-04-10h3l0oHB3743 .N53 1994p00000076375r2018-10-24 00:00:00t1w2018-10-24ybk