03471cam a22003738i 4500 115756 20230410105432.0 130920s2014 nju b 001 0ceng 17892999 2013031457 9780691159119 (hardback) DLC eng DLC rda pcc n-us--- HC 102.5 F911f 2014 330.082273 Friedman, Walter A., 1962- Fortune tellers : the story of America's first economic forecasters / Walter A. Friedman. Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2014. xi, 273 : ill. ; 25 cm Roger W. Babson : the rule of past patterns : "The fundamental law of 'action reaction'" -- Irving Fisher : the economy as a mathematical model : "The velocity of money" -- John Moody : the bright light of transparency : "An aggregation of over 440 large industrial, franchise and transportation trusts" -- Gallery of business and forecasting charts -- C.J. Bullock and Warren Persons : the Harvard ABC chart : "The statistician ... attempts to find a specific analogy existing in an orderly universe" -- Wesley Mitchell and Herbert Hoover : forecasting as policy : "If we could foresee the business cycle, there would be none" -- Visions of the future. "The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929.Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself"-- Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. Economic forecasting United States History. Business forecasting United States History. Economists United States Biography. Primera Jornada de Catalogacion. Perspectivas económicas Estados Unidos Historia. Pronóstico de la economía Historia. Proyecciones económicas Estados Unidos Historia. Administración de riesgos Evaluación Metodología. Economía Estados Unidos. lcc bk 36659 36659 0 0 lcc 0 0 CS BJB BJB CS 2023-04-10 1 0 HC 102.5 F911f 2014 00000108656 2018-10-24 00:00:00 1 2018-10-24 bk