01864cam a22003614a 4500 114922 20230410120757.0 101215s2011 nyua b 001 0 eng 2010048289 9780465021024 (hardback) 0465021026 (hardback) 9780465023356 (ebook) (OCoLC)ocn657595615 DLC DLC YDX BTCTA YDXCP MOF CDX BWX GDC DLC pcc HV 675 F533c 2011 363.3463 Fisher, Len. Crashes, crises, and calamities : how we can use science to read the early-warning signs / Len Fisher. New York : Basic Books, c2011. xviii, 233 p. : ill. ; 22 cm. Incluye referencias bibliográficas e índice. Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. Primera Jornada de Catalogacion. Accidentes Prevención. Accidents Prevention. Natural disasters Forecasting. Science History. Science Social aspects. Scientists. lcc bk 51679 51679 0 0 lcc 0 0 CS BJB BJB CS 2023-04-10 1 0 HV 675 F533c 2011 00000108380 2018-10-24 00:00:00 1 2018-10-24 bk