how we can use science to read the early-warning signs Fisher, Len. creator text bibliography nyu New York Basic Books c2011 2011 monographic eng

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xviii, 233 p. : ill. ; 22 cm. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting. Len Fisher. Incluye referencias bibliográficas e índice. Primera Jornada de Catalogacion Accidentes Prevención Accidents Prevention Natural disasters Forecasting Science History Science Social aspects Scientists HV 675 F533c 2011 363.3463 9780465021024 (hardback) 0465021026 (hardback) 9780465023356 (ebook) 2010048289 DLC 101215 20230410120757.0 114922