02734cam a22003134a 450000100090000000300080000900500170001700700030003400800410003701000170007802000280009502000310012304000230015404100080017704200080018504300120019305000220020508200190022710000370024624500980028326000330038130000480041450400640046250516940052665000540222065000590227465000410233365000460237412500605BJBSDDR20250204140412.0ta010813s2002    nyua     b    001 0 eng    a  2001038738  a0321087291 (alk. paper)  a9780321087294 (alk. paper)  aDLCcDLCdDLCbeng  aeng  apcc  an-us---14aJK 524bJ78w 200200a324.973/001/121 aJones, Randall J.,cJr., d1941-10aWho will be in the White House? :bpredicting presidential elections /cRandall J. Jones, Jr.  aNew York :bLongman,cc2002.  axii, 164 pages : billustrations ; c23 cm.  aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 133-142) and index.0 a1. Trial Heat Polls. Survey Methods.Lead Time of Surveys.Linking Surveys to Elections.Conclusion.Addendum: Trial Heat Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios.2. Bellwethers. Types of Bellwethers.States: Swingometric and Barometric Bellwethers.Counties As Bellwethers.Scenarios Using Bellwethers.Conclusion.Addendum: Bellwether Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios.3. Presidential Approval Ratings. Rationale.Establishing the Linkage.Conclusion.Addendum: Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios Using Presidential Approval Ratings.4. Other Public Opinion-Based Techniques. Exit Polls.Surveys of Voters' “Likes” and “Dislikes” of Candidates.Surveys of Past and Present Demographics: Ithiel de Sola Pool's “simulmatics”.Iowa Electronic Market.5. Judgment-Based Forecasting Techniques. Judgment-Based Regression: Budge and Farlie.Assessments of Key Factors Affecting Elections: Lichtman.Panels of Experts.Expected Utility Theory.Conclusion.6. Cycles in Presidential Elections. Cycles of Liberalism and Conservatism: Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr.Cycles of Public Purpose and Private Interest: Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.Two-Term Penalty.Another Approach to Two-Term Cycles.Conclusion.7. The Nomination Process and Campaigns. Primary Elections.Disorderly Conventions.Post-Convention Campaigns.Conclusion.8. Performance of the Economy. Retrospective Indicators.Prospective Indicators.Conclusion.Addendum: Equations for the 2000 Election Scenarios Using Selected Economic Indicators.9. Putting It All Together: Multivariate Forecasting Models. National-Level Models.State-Level Models.Forecast Scenarios for 2000 Election Using Multivariate Models.Conclusion.Addendum: A Note on Data Sources. 0aPresidentszUnited StatesxElectionxForecasting. 4aPresidenteszEstados UnidosxEleccionesxPronósticos 0aElection forecastingzUnited States. 4aPronósticos electoraleszEstados Unidos