02667cam a2200349Mi 4500 86732 86732 BJBSDDR 20230410132730.0 ta 081125s2007 enka f 001 0 eng d 9780141034591 0141034599 (OCoLC)ocn456518353 (OCoLC)456518353 SILIS slv SILIS eng xxk gbr GRAL Q 375 T143b 2007 003/.54 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960- The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. London : Penguin Books, 2007. xviii, 366 p. : il. ; 20 cm. Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. Uncertainty (Information theory) Social aspects. Forecasting. Incertidumbre (Teoría de la información) 17496 Predicciones sociales 3059 lcc BK nc 0 0 0 0 HU BJB BJB HU 2023-04-10 0 Q 375 T143b 2007 00000081317 2018-10-25 00:00:00 1 2018-10-25 BK