02463cam a2200325Ma 4500 86733 86733 BJBSDDR 20230410132730.0 ta 070809s2007 nyua b 001 0 eng d 9781400063512 1400063515 (OCoLC)ocn318378602 (OCoLC)318378602 ZZAND spa ZZAND eng Q 375 T143bl 2007 003/.54 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960- The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. New York : Random House, c2007. xxviii, 366 p. : il. ; 25 cm. Incluye bibliografía (p. [331]-358) e índice. "A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essaym "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world"--Jacket. Uncertainty (Information theory) Social aspects. Forecasting. Incertidumbre (Teoría de la información) 17496 Predicciones sociales 3059 lcc BK mjcruz 0 0 0 0 HU BJB BJB HU 2023-04-10 0 Q 375 T143bl 2007 00000080810 2018-10-25 00:00:00 1 2018-10-25 BK