000			03471cam a22003738i 4500
001			115756
005			20230410105432.0
008			130920s2014 nju b 001 0ceng
035			_a17892999
010			_a 2013031457
020			_a9780691159119 (hardback)
040			_aDLC _beng _cDLC _erda
042			_apcc
043			_an-us---
050	1	4	_aHC 102.5 _bF911f 2014
082	0	0	_a330.082273
100	1		_aFriedman, Walter A., _d1962-
245	1	0	_aFortune tellers : _bthe story of America's first economic forecasters / _cWalter A. Friedman.
264		1	_aPrinceton : _bPrinceton University Press, _c2014.
300			_axi, 273 : _ ill. ; _ 25 cm
505	0		_aRoger W. Babson : the rule of past patterns : "The fundamental law of 'action reaction'" -- Irving Fisher : the economy as a mathematical model : "The velocity of money" -- John Moody : the bright light of transparency : "An aggregation of over 440 large industrial, franchise and transportation trusts" -- Gallery of business and forecasting charts -- C.J. Bullock and Warren Persons : the Harvard ABC chart : "The statistician ... attempts to find a specific analogy existing in an orderly universe" -- Wesley Mitchell and Herbert Hoover : forecasting as policy : "If we could foresee the business cycle, there would be none" -- Visions of the future.
520			_a"The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929.Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself"-- _cProvided by publisher.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
650		0	_aEconomic forecasting _zUnited States _xHistory.
650		0	_aBusiness forecasting _zUnited States _xHistory.
650		0	_aEconomists _zUnited States _vBiography.
650		4	_aPrimera Jornada de Catalogacion.
650		4	_aPerspectivas económicas _zEstados Unidos _xHistoria.
650		4	_aPronóstico de la economía _xHistoria.
650		4	_aProyecciones económicas _zEstados Unidos _xHistoria.
650		4	_aAdministración de riesgos _xEvaluación _xMetodología.
650		4	_aEconomía _zEstados Unidos.
942			_2lcc _cbk
999			_c36659 _d36659