| 000 | 02463cam a2200325Ma 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 999 |
_c86733 _d86733 |
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| 003 | BJBSDDR | ||
| 005 | 20230410132730.0 | ||
| 007 | ta | ||
| 008 | 070809s2007 nyua b 001 0 eng d | ||
| 020 | _a9781400063512 | ||
| 020 | _a1400063515 | ||
| 035 | _a(OCoLC)ocn318378602 | ||
| 035 | _a(OCoLC)318378602 | ||
| 040 |
_aZZAND _bspa _cZZAND |
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| 041 | _aeng | ||
| 050 | 1 | 4 |
_aQ 375 _bT143bl 2007 |
| 082 | 0 | 0 | _a003/.54 |
| 100 | 1 |
_aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas, _d1960- |
|
| 245 | 1 | 4 |
_aThe black swan : _bthe impact of the highly improbable / _cNassim Nicholas Taleb. |
| 260 |
_aNew York : _bRandom House, _cc2007. |
||
| 300 |
_axxviii, 366 p. : _bil. ; _c25 cm. |
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| 504 | _aIncluye bibliografía (p. [331]-358) e índice. | ||
| 520 | _a"A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essaym "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world"--Jacket. | ||
| 650 | 0 |
_aUncertainty (Information theory) _xSocial aspects. |
|
| 650 | 0 | _aForecasting. | |
| 650 | 4 |
_aIncertidumbre (Teoría de la información) _917496 |
|
| 650 | 4 |
_aPredicciones sociales _93059 |
|
| 942 |
_2lcc _cBK |
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| 946 | _amjcruz | ||